After Christopher Bell FINALLY broke through with a victory in last Sunday’s Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway, the NASCAR Chase for the Championship is officially in FULL SWING!
The second of 10 post-season events brings us to World Wide Technology Raceway in St. Louis, for NASCAR’s annual visit to the only 1.25-mile racetrack on the schedule. HighLine Betting (@HighLineBetting on X) is BACK for another weekly value report for this weekend’s EnjoyIllinois.com 300.
TRACK AND RACE OVERVIEW
This weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series event at World Wide Technology Raceway (Gateway) is the second of 10 post-season events. The racetrack fits the flat-track profile that the series has raced on a lot in the last couple of months.
WWT Raceway is a 1.25-mile egg-shaped oval:
- 11 degrees of banking in Turns 1 & 2
- 9 degrees of banking in Turns 3 & 4
Race Details:
- Distance: 240 Laps or 300 Miles
- Stage 1: 45 Laps
- Stage 2: 95 Laps (Ends on Lap 140)
- Stage 3: 100 Laps
COMPARABLE TRACKS:
Gateway is a flat racetrack and groups well with Phoenix Raceway, Martinsville Speedway, North Wilkesboro Speedway, Iowa Speedway, Richmond Raceway, and New Hampshire Motor Speedway. In this instance, the model will lean more on Phoenix and New Hampshire.
This race, in the past, has been a strategy-heavy event. A caution in the middle of the event flips the race constantly. Track position is everything here, and a fast car buried in traffic can still leave empty-handed.
ABOUT THE MODEL
I don’t use NASCAR Loop Data. I built 15 proprietary metrics straight from lap-by-lap timing. Those metrics feed the model and spit out projected win, top-three, top-five, and top-10 percentages for each driver – plus a Fair Market Value (FMV) for each market. One important note: the model is predicting speed, not finishing position. Over 300 miles, strategy, pit calls, and pure chaos can still let a slower car win the race.
WHO THE MODEL LIKES
Austin Cindric (#2 Team Penske Ford Mustang)
Model Rank: P6
FMV: Win +1721, T3 +472, T5 +227
Notes: This is a Penske-style racetrack, and Cindric is also strong at flat tracks. However, I don’t know if I see enough to feel confident. He only has a pair of top-10 finishes at this track profile in 2026.
Bubba Wallace (#23 23XI Racing Toyota Camry)
Model Rank: P7
FMV: Win +1953, T3 +472, T5 +227
Notes: Bubba Wallace has been sneaky good at the flat tracks this season, with a 50% top-10 rate on this track profile – and more importantly, he finished sixth-place at Phoenix and runner-up at New Hampshire.
RECOMMENDED BET
I never fire on every number that the model spits out – especially before practice and qualifying. Right now, I’m only willing to play one spot, and I’m playing it small: 0.25 units. I’m primarily a post-practice / qualifying bettor. Odds move fast.
BUBBA WALLACE +120 TOP-10
It’s Toyota’s world, and we’re just living in it. They’ve been great this season, and I see no reason Bubba can’t bring home a top-10 finish this weekend at WWT Raceway.
PERSONAL RANKINGS:
As a thank you for the support, here are the top-13 in my personal rankings.
