The NASCAR Cup Series is back at Phoenix Raceway, making its second trip to the one-mile oval in Avondale, Arizona. It’s the sixth race of the NASCAR Cup Series Chase, and for the first time since 2020, not Championship Weekend, so Sunday’s 500-kilometer contest means more than just winner-takes-all.
This weekend, the NASCAR Cup Series trades the high-speed mile-and-a-half ovals for the flat, technical asphalt of Phoenix Raceway — a place that has lived firmly in the wheelhouse of Team Penske this season.
Phoenix Raceway is a one-mile oval with modest banking: nine degrees in Turns 1 and 2 and eleven degrees in Turns 3 and 4. It’s a driver’s track that rewards handling, tire management, and clean restarts more than raw horsepower.
Freeway Insurance 500 – Race Details:
- Distance: 312 laps / 312 miles
- Stage 1: 60 laps
- Stage 2: 125 laps
- Final Stage: 127 laps
The closest comps are the usual flat-track group: Martinsville, North Wilkesboro, Richmond, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Gateway. For this week, I’m leaning hardest on long-term Phoenix history plus this year’s Gateway results.
About the Model
I don’t use NASCAR loop data. Instead, I build 15 proprietary metrics directly from lap-by-lap timing. Those metrics generate projected win, top-3, top-5, and top-10 percentages for every driver, plus a fair market value (FMV) for each betting market.
One important caveat: the model is measuring speed, not predicted finishing position. Over 300+ miles, strategy, pit calls, and late-race chaos can still let a slower car steal the win.
Who the Model Likes:
Two drivers show clear value. I’m not forcing either of them, but the numbers are hard to ignore.
Joey Logano
Model Rank: 3rd
FMV — Win: +687 | Top 3: +194 | Top 5: -101
Penske has been excellent on short-to-mid flat tracks all year. Logano fits the profile perfectly. While I can see Blaney or Bell potentially having a higher ceiling, Logano should be a top-5 contender from the drop of the green flag.
Josh Berry
Model Rank: 7th
FMV — Win: +2051 | Top 3: +526 | Top 5: +252
Yes, the car says Wood Brothers, but this is effectively another Penske entry—and flat tracks have been Berry’s best surface type. The model likes his underlying speed more than the market does right now.
Recommended Bet:
I don’t fire on every number the model produces, especially before practice and qualifying. Odds move fast, and I’m primarily a post-practice/qualifying bettor.
Right now I’m only willing to play one spot, and I’m playing it small (0.25 units):
Josh Berry Top 10 +145
That’s the only position I’m interested in at the moment. Everything else can wait until we see the cars on track. I also grabbed him in a group, but the odds moved before I could finish the article.
Personal Rankings:
Final Thoughts
If you want to follow along, check out Before the Green on YouTube and X (@highlinebetting) Sunday, 11 a.m. Eastern. Appreciate you reading. Drop a comment and tell me what you think — and what you want to see in future write-ups.
Betting Glossary
Quick definitions for the key terms used in this report, with real examples pulled straight from the article:
Fair Market Value (FMV)
The odds the model believes a driver should be priced at based on projected performance.
Example: Tyler Reddick’s FMV sits at +608. If the actual market offers longer odds than that, the model sees value.
Value / Flashing Value
When the market odds are longer (higher payout) than the model’s fair market value. You’re getting a better price than the model thinks the true probability deserves.
Example: “My model is showing clear value on two drivers” and “Other drivers flashing value on the win market.”
Win Market / To-Win
Betting on a driver to finish 1st.
Example: The entire “To-Win Value” section lists drivers the model likes to take the checkered flag at prices better than their FMV.
Placement Props (Top 3 / Top 5 / Top 10)
Bets on a driver finishing inside a specific position range rather than winning outright. These usually offer shorter odds but higher hit rates.
Example: “Byron Top 3 FMV +267 and Top 5 +145” and the recommended “William Byron Top 5 +225.” American Odds (+ numbers)
The standard U.S. format. A +608 price means $100 bet wins $608 in profit (plus your $100 stake back). Higher positive numbers = bigger underdogs and bigger potential payouts.
Example: John Hunter Nemechek’s win FMV of +4333 or his Top 10 at +201.Pre-Practice / Pre-Qualifying Model
Rankings generated before any on-track activity this weekend. These numbers will shift once practice speeds and qualifying results come in.
