The NASCAR Cup Series has officially reached the second half of its 26-race regular-season, and that means focus has now shifted towards “The Chase” — the 10-race post-season that NASCAR revived this year to replace the elimination-style format that had grown stale and illegitimate over the last decade.
Yes, the format itself is completely different, with the points only being reset one time (at the end of the regular-season) and benefits for drivers sitting higher in point standings at the end of that 26-race period. However, the industry is still looking at the point standings for the same pressure points.
The battle for the regular-season championship is as important as it has ever been, with its winner getting a 100-point bonus to start “The Chase”, whereas the runner-up gets 75 points, third 65 points, fourth 60 points, fifth 55 points, and so on, all the way down to 16th, who will get no additional points.
It’s not IMPOSSIBLE to win a title from outside the top-five in the regular-season point standings, but many within the industry believe it’ll take a god-like post-season to hoist the Bill France Cup in November if you’re outside the top-six.
After his lights-out start to the year, winning five of the first nine NASCAR Cup Series events (Daytona, EchoPark, COTA, Darlington, and Kansas), Tyler Reddick holds a 97-point lead over Denny Hamlin. Ryan Blaney (-174), Chase Elliott (-197), Ty Gibbs (-208), and Kyle Larson (-248) round out the top half-dozen.
Christopher Bell (seventh, -258), William Byron (eleventh, -305), and Chase Briscoe (fourteenth, -314) are three drivers expected to have a shot at winning the championship, currently sitting outside of that top-six in points.
That brings us to the second pressure point: 16th.
Similar to the elimination-style format that NASCAR used in the Cup Series from 2014 to 2025, there will still be 16 drivers that qualify for “The Chase” this season — that being the one major change from when the format was used in the late 2000s and early 2010s.
Here’s a look at some notable drivers/teams in “The Chase” conversation:
Spire Motorsports teammates Carson Hocevar and Daniel Suarez have been two decent surprises when it comes to battling for a spot in “The Chase”, both sitting inside the top-10 in NASCAR Cup Series points after visiting Victory Lane at Talladega (Hocevar) and Charlotte (Suarez). The key for these two drivers is simple: keep doing what you’re doing, because it’s working.
Shane Van Gisbergen (12th, +44) has been impressive in the first half of the regular-season, but not just on the road courses, either. The Auckland, New Zealand-native went to Victory Lane at Watkins Glen, as expected, but has also kept himself in the post-season conversation with some fantastic runs on the ovals, including a top-five at Nashville Superspeedway.
The Cup Series will head to two road courses, San Diego and Sonoma, over the next four weeks, and by that point — with eight races remaining in the regular-season — the Trackhouse Racing driver will know what needs to be done to qualify for the post-season, but for now, things are looking solid.
Nashville Superspeedway was an extremely tough race for many drivers on both sides of “The Chase” cutline, including Ryan Preece and Austin Cindric. Following the Coca-Cola 600, only two drivers below the cutline were within 45 points; now, there are SEVEN.
Bubba Wallace spent five consecutive weeks inside the top-three in NASCAR Cup Series points, but ever since a crash at Martinsville, he has been in a backslide, with five finishes outside the top-22 dropping him to 15th. Nashville was a wash, too, and now, the 23XI Racing driver is only 34 points above the cutline.
Austin Cindric had a HORRIBLE start to the season, and after five races, sat 30th in the NASCAR Cup Series point standings. But the Team Penske driver managed to turn things around and get as high as 15th in points. In the last two weeks, though, bad luck has struck and knocked Cindric to only two points above the cutline.
Before a late-race accident in the Coca-Cola 600, Ryan Preece had gone 37 consecutive NASCAR Cup Series events without failing to finish, but it’s been a bad two weeks for the RFK Racing driver, who, after a hole was punched in the radiator of the No. 60 at Nashville, now has back-to-back DNFs — dropping him below the cutline for the first time since Phoenix (Race 4).
It hasn’t been a strong year for Joey Logano. With three DNF’s and six finishes of 30th or worse in 14 races, the three-time NASCAR Cup Series champion has spent the last four weeks outside the top-16 in points. The Team Penske driver is going to have to find some speed, or else, he’s going to be in danger of missing “The Chase”, which no doubt would be one of the biggest shocks of 2026.
Michael McDowell (#71 Spire Motorsports), Zane Smith (#38 Front Row Motorsports), Erik Jones (#43 LEGACY MOTOR CLUB), AJ Allmendinger (#16 Kaulig Racing), and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (#47 HYAK Motorsports) are currently sitting 19th to 23rd in points, right now, and are coming off some strong runs.
These five drivers — running in entries that probably weren’t primarily thought of as contenders to make “The Chase” — have kept themselves in the running enough where a strong run of races could create some surprises in the top-16.
McDowell is incredible on road courses (just finishing P2 at Watkins Glen), so back-to-back races at San Diego and Sonoma could help the No. 71 to join its Spire Motorsports teammates inside the top-16.
Smith and Jones have shown speed at times this season, but since the NASCAR All-Star Race at Dover, both the Front Row Motorsports No. 38 and LEGACY MOTOR CLUB No. 43 have had real pace, enough to run in the top-10 and get themselves closer and closer to the cutline.
Allmendinger is a dark horse at all track types, given his experience level, but excels at road courses. However, the Los Gatos, California-native isn’t too shabby everywhere else. The main issue for the No. 16 is that Kaulig Racing has no manufacturer support whatsoever, so results can be rather unpredictable.
Stenhouse and HYAK Motorsports found speed at Charlotte and finished top-five on strategy at Nashville, so all hope is not lost in the No. 47 camp. There are also two superspeedways between now and “The Chase”, and that 55 points for winning surely wouldn’t hurt the case of the No. 47.
If your favorite driver is currently sitting lower than 23rd in NASCAR Cup Series point standings, I have some bad news for you: It’s likely going to take a miracle for them to make “The Chase”.
Ross Chastain (who finished runner-up in points in 2022) is having a dismal showing throughout the first half of the season, and currently sits a disappointing 26th in NASCAR Cup Series points. It’s the lowest Chastain has sat in point standings (aside from the first two races of a season) since his first year with Chip Ganassi Racing in 2021. At 67 points below the cutline, the Alva, Florida-native is going to need to move quickly.
Alex Bowman missed several races at the start of the year due to vertigo, leaving him way down the order in the NASCAR Cup Series point standings. Making “The Chase” might not be a realistic goal for the driver of the No. 48, who now sits 32nd in points, 146 below the cutline.
The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series regular-season will finish at the following 12 tracks:
- June 7: Michigan International Speedway
- June 14: Pocono Raceway
- June 21: Naval Base Coronado
- June 28: Sonoma Raceway
- July 5: Chicagoland Speedway
- July 12: EchoPark Speedway
- July 19: North Wilkesboro Speedway
- July 26: Indianapolis Motor Speedway
- August 9: Iowa Speedway
- August 15: Richmond Raceway
- August 23: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
- August 29: Daytona International Speedway
PHOTO: NKP for Ford Performance
